Talking heads on the various news shows have opined at length about Donald Trump’s gender gap and how much he has been hurt by various events perceived as anti-woman. These have included his remarks about women being punished for abortions, his defense of his campaign manager after accusations of battery, and his tweeting of an unflattering image of Ted Cruz’s wife juxtaposed with his wife, a former model.
According to the narrative, Donald Trump may have reached his peak, and his campaign is on the verge of collapse (hear that before?). Other commentators have commented on how “nice” the people of Wisconsin are, and they have been repulsed by Mr. Trump’s rough tactics.
That’s why it was so interesting to read the “Upshot” column in The New York Times this morning. According to the column, peculiar Wisconsin demographics predict Mr. Trump would have trouble winning the state, and, more specifically, he would trail Mr. Cruz by about five percentage points, almost exactly the gap shown by the most recent public opinion polls.
The article notes the high percentage of the people in Wisconsin who are highly educated, living in traditional families, with ancestry in Protestant countries of Northern Europe. According to the article, political professionals will be observing whether Mr. Trump falls below 35 percent. If he does, then a statistically significant event has occurred.