A political campaign is a living, breathing organism. Momentum is critical, but change is constant. Anything can affect that, a bad debate, an ill-considered statement, even feedback from polls.
That’s why campaign managers are always trying to spin the outcome, manage expectations and put a good face on voting results, no matter how dire.
The tone of the last Republican debate, no matter who you support, left a lot to be desired. A campaign rapidly falling into the gutter landed there with a big thud. Ted Cruz may have gained just by keeping his mouth shut.
Donald Trump, an unconventional candidate, may have made a major error by counter punching on charges he would have been better off ignoring. If he’s not careful, he will lose control of the movement he founded.
People have already expressed alarm about the atmosphere of Trump rallies. Without intending it, Mr. Trump will be tarred by the acts of his followers.
Let’s be frank. Donald Trump is a political genius. He correctly gauged the mood of the Republican electorate and left his competitors in the dust. Now, they have suddenly woken up in a largely futile effort to stop his march to the nomination.
Moreover, Mr. Trump will not stand idly by while the “never Trump” movement attempts to stop him. As the Republican frontrunner, he now has the leverage to foil their plans. Any brokered convention would end up electing Hillary Clinton, and the Republican establishment knows that. Despite their protestations, they will reluctantly support him, if only for the Supreme Court.
However, before you draw any conclusions about the future course of the race, you must understand the dynamics of a campaign can turn on a dime. Unanticipated events, an ill-considered phrase, almost anything can impact the voters, especially this year, when many of them are particularly fickle.
In politics, a week is like a year. No one knows for sure how all of this will turn out.